ORIGINAL LINK : https://www.bbc.com/korean/articles/c973ynpg8qvo
Recently, when U.S. President Joe Biden approved a $80 million subsidy plan for Taiwan to purchase American military equipment, China expressed its opposition, calling it “abhorrent”.
At first glance, $80 million might not seem like a large sum. In fact, it’s not enough to buy even one modern fighter jet. The cost of the U.S. military equipment Taiwan has already ordered exceeds $14 billion.
So, would an additional $80 million really be an issue?
China has typically been enraged by military support for Taiwan, but this time it’s different.
This $80 million is not a loan. It’s U.S. taxpayers’ money. The U.S. authorities are using their taxpayers’ money to support the purchase of weapons in a place they officially do not recognize as a sovereign nation, for the first time in over 40 years. This is part of the U.S. government’s military aid program, known as ‘Foreign Military Financing (FMF)’.
Following Russia’s invasion last year, the U.S. provided approximately $4 billion in military aid to Ukraine through the FMF. The U.S. has also supported Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, and Egypt with billions of dollars through the FMF.
However, until now, the U.S. has only provided FMF support to nations or organizations officially recognized by the UN. Taiwan does not fall into this category.
Since 1979, when the U.S. recognized China as the official state instead of Taiwan, the U.S. has continued to sell weapons to Taiwan under the ‘Taiwan Relations Act’. The essence of this law is to sell enough weapons to Taiwan to enable it to defend itself from potential Chinese attacks, but not so much to destabilize U.S.-China relations.
In reality, the U.S. has maintained this strategic ambiguity, remaining a staunch ally of Taiwan while also maintaining trade with China.
However, over the past decade, the military balance between China and Taiwan has greatly tilted and China now boasts an overwhelming power. The old approach no longer works.
U.S. authorities claim their policy hasn’t changed, but in a crucial aspect, it has.
The U.S. State Department quickly denied that the support through FMF signifies official recognition of Taiwan.
However, from Taiwan’s perspective, particularly in this critical situation where the U.S. is pressuring Taiwan’s rearmament, this is a clear signal that the U.S. is redefining its relationship with them. Also, Taiwan, which is militarily inferior to China, needs this kind of help from the U.S.
Wang Ting-yu, a legislator from Taiwan’s ruling ‘Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’, who has a close relationship with President Tsai Ing-Wen and the U.S. Congressional leadership, explained, “The U.S. is emphasizing that Taiwan’s military enhancement is necessary,” and “The U.S. is sending a clear strategic message to China that we are together.”
Wang noted that this $80 million aid is just a small part of a much larger iceberg, drawing attention to the fact that President Biden approved the sale of $500 million worth of military equipment to Taiwan using his presidential discretion in July.
Wang also explained that Taiwan is preparing to send two ground battalions to the U.S. for training for the first time since the 1970s.
He added that the size of the aid could reach $10 billion over the next five years, emphasizing that ultimately, money is what matters.
Ai-chung Lai, president of the Taiwan-based ‘Prospect Foundation’, explained that while military equipment support could take up to 10 years, “If it’s support through FMF, it’s a method where the U.S. directly takes out from its own arsenal. Since it’s U.S. money, there’s no need to go through all these approval procedures.”
Considering the fact that the U.S. Congress has provided Ukraine with billions of dollars despite disagreements, it is noteworthy that both parties have stepped forward to provide positive military support for Taiwan.
However, just like the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, it seems that the U.S.’s weapon supply to Taiwan will face obstacles. President Biden is currently seeking ways to support the wars in Ukraine and Israel, which includes more financial support for Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense remained tight-lipped with a meaningful smile when asked about the use of U.S. aid.
However, Lai speculated that it could be efficient weapons like ‘Javelin’ and ‘Stinger’ anti-aircraft missiles, which the Taiwanese military can quickly learn to use.
“Taiwan does not have enough of these weapons and needs a lot,” said Lai, “In Ukraine, the stock of Stingers quickly ran out, and looking at the situation in Ukraine, Taiwan needs about 10 times the number of Stingers it currently has.”
The assessment made by experts who have long observed Taiwan’s situation is harsh. They say Taiwan is woefully unprepared to face a Chinese attack.
There are numerous problems. Taiwan’s army has hundreds of tanks, but they are old, and the inventory of modern light missile systems is severely lacking. Moreover, the command structure, tactics, and policies of Taiwan’s army have not changed in half a century. Many frontline units are only able to fill 60% of the required personnel, and it is known that Taiwan does not have a counterintelligence network within China.
Moreover, the military conscription system is broken. In 2022, the Taiwanese government extended the military service period, which had been reduced to 4 months in 2013, back to 12 months. This will be implemented from next year, but the Taiwanese military is so problematic that young people jokingly call it a ‘summer camp’.
A young man who recently completed his service said, “There is no regular training,” and “We went to the shooting range about once every two weeks. We used old guns made in the 1970s. We shot at targets, but they didn’t teach us how to aim properly, so we all missed. There was no physical training either. There was a physical test before discharge, but we didn’t prepare for it at all.”
He also explained that senior army commanders are completely indifferent to young soldiers and have no intention of training them, citing the short service period as one of the reasons.
In the U.S., the prevailing opinion is that there is not enough time to reform and rebuild Taiwan’s military. Hence, the U.S. is also embarking on re-educating Taiwan’s military.
For decades, Taiwan’s political and military leadership has relied heavily on the belief that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be too difficult and risky for China. Accordingly, Taiwan has focused on nurturing its navy and air force, like the UK.
Lai explained that Taiwan “poured resources into air and sea defense” with the idea of “dragging the Chinese military into the Taiwan Strait and annihilating them on the beach.”
However, China has now grown into a country boasting the world’s largest navy and a powerful air force. According to a war simulation conducted by a U.S. diplomatic research institute last year, in the event of a clash between China and Taiwan, Taiwan’s navy and air force would be wiped out within 96 hours.
Meanwhile, under strong U.S. pressure, Taiwan is shifting to a “Fortress Taiwan” strategy to make China’s conquest extremely difficult.
The “Fortress Taiwan” strategy is a plan to reorganize around ground forces, infantry, and artillery to repel Chinese invasions on the beach, and if necessary, fight Chinese forces from deep mountain bases covered in jungle in Taiwan. However, this leaves the responsibility for Taiwan’s defense to its outdated army.
Lai explained, “After the U.S. broke off relations in 1979, the Taiwanese army was almost completely isolated,” and “So it’s stuck in the U.S. military style of the Vietnam War era.”
However, until recently, neither Taiwan nor the U.S. were worried about this. In the 1990s and 2000s, Taiwanese and U.S. companies built factories throughout China.
China lobbied to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), and actually joined the WTO. The world accepted China’s economy, and the U.S. believed it could achieve peace across the Taiwan Strait through trade and investment.
However, this optimistic outlook has been shattered due to Xi Jinping and his nationalism, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Taiwan learned a shocking lesson from the war in Ukraine. Artillery still plays a dominant role in warfare, and modern artillery flies terrifyingly fast and accurately. The Ukrainian forces realized that they had to flee within minutes once they fired their artillery, because
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