Two puzzles to convince ‘nuclear use = end of Kim regime’.

North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un, accompanied by his daughter and wife at a military parade (archive photo) ⓒLabor Newspaper

South Korea and the United States continue to deliver the message of ‘the end of Kim Jong Un’s regime in the event of nuclear use.’ This is intended to prevent North Korea’s miscalculation of ‘voluntary nuclear use.’

While the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea is becoming more concrete by the day, there is a need to quickly enhance the reliability of the ‘Korean-style 3-axis system’ comprised of △Kill Chain △Korean-style Missile Defense System (KAMD) △Massive Punitive Retaliation (KMPR).

Former Deputy Minister of Defense, Shin Beom-chul, stated at the Seoul Diplomatic Forum held at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy on the 17th, “In order to instill in Kim Jong Un the belief that ‘if nuclear weapons are used against South Korea, I will at least die,’ we need to do two more things,” emphasizing the need to secure military reconnaissance satellites and enhance warhead destructive power.

Former Deputy Minister Shin mentioned that while there are areas where surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities are shared well with the U.S. and received in real-time, “we are still lacking.” He expressed his belief that surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities need to be enhanced, considering North Korea’s recent efforts to maximize missile survivability through △diversification of launch platforms △development of solid-fuel engines, and more.

He emphasized, “If North Korea launches a missile from a mobile launch platform (TEL), it used to take 50 minutes or an hour, but in the future, it will be reduced to 20 minutes or even 10 minutes,” adding, “We need more reconnaissance satellites to effectively operate the Kill Chain. In addition to the information provided by the U.S., we need to secure our own intelligence capabilities to be able to observe specific points in North Korea at 10-minute intervals.”

Considering that a single satellite can perform surveillance and reconnaissance tasks over a specific area at 12-hour intervals, it implies the need to deploy about seven satellites to monitor North Korea. If a large number of satellites are operated, it is expected that the ability to quickly detect signs of North Korea’s nuclear missile attack and initiate a ‘first strike’ with the Kill Chain will be maximized.

In relation to this, our military is planning to launch the Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in the U.S. on the 30th.

Our military firing a Hyunmoo-2 missile (archive photo) ⓒJoint Chiefs of Staff/Newsis

Former Deputy Minister Shin also advised that there is a need to strengthen the capability for massive punitive retaliation, the ‘final stage’ of the Korean-style 3-axis system. As part of this, he analyzed, “We need to increase the destructive power of the warheads,” and “South Korea is at the forefront, but when the Ministry of National Defense checked various aspects, there were areas that needed to be strengthened.”

This implies that, given the possibility of North Korea successfully launching a nuclear missile attack by penetrating the Kill Chain and the Korean-style Missile Defense System, South Korea and the U.S. need to further enhance their capacity to ‘remove’ North Korean leaders such as Chairman Kim Jong Un, as they have announced.

This also means that South Korea, which has declared its commitment to non-proliferation through the ‘Washington Declaration,’ needs to secure conventional capabilities equivalent to tactical nuclear destructive power.

Minister of National Defense Suh Wook and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ⓒPhotojournalism Joint Coverage Team

In addition, Former Deputy Minister Shin expressed his position that the extended deterrence provided by the U.S. can be trusted.

He said, “If South Korea is attacked with (North) nuclear weapons and the U.S. does not retaliate at an appropriate level, whether with nuclear weapons or otherwise, the U.S. will lose the trust of its alliance network, including NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).”

If the U.S. hesitates to defend South Korea, which it has elevated as an ‘ironclad ally,’ other allies of the U.S. may go their own way, such as developing their own nuclear weapons, saying, “We cannot trust the U.S.,” which could shake the U.S.’s position in the international community.