US presidential election, Biden trailing-Trump polls show clear outcome prediction.
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President Joe Biden is trailing behind former President Donald Trump in all recent polls for the upcoming presidential election in a year.
CNN reported on the 19th (local time) that Trump’s approval rating was 2-4 percentage points ahead of Biden in recent polls conducted by CBS News, Yougov, CNN and SSRS, Fox News, Market Law School, and Quinnipiac University.
◇ CNN “In recent major polls, Trump is ahead of Biden… Biden is trailing for the second time as an incumbent a year ahead of the election”
NBC also reported that day that in a poll (margin of error ±3.1%) of 1,000 registered voters nationwide from October 10 to 14, President Biden (44%) trailed former President Trump (46%) by 2 percentage points.
CNN assessed that while the difference in approval ratings between President Biden and former President Trump is within the margin of error and does not have significant meaning in itself, when considering overall polls, it illustrates the real issues faced by incumbent President Biden.
Over the past 80 years, most polls conducted about a year ahead of the election showed the incumbent president leading by just over 10 percentage points on average. However, Biden is the second incumbent to trail in polls at this point in his re-election campaign. Coincidentally, the first case was when then-President Trump trailed Biden, then the Democratic candidate, by about 10 percentage points in November 2019.
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◇ CNN “Trump has never had an advantage in 2020 polls… this time he’s ahead in 17 polls, including at least once in swing states”
CNN reported that former President Trump has a small but clear advantage over President Biden, which is noteworthy because Trump has never had an advantage in any national polls meeting CNN’s publication standards in 2020. This time, he’s ahead in 17 polls, including at least once in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and other swing states where he never led in 2020.
CNN stated that while some point to divisions within the Democratic Party and issues with the party’s left wing as reasons for Biden’s falling approval ratings, in reality, Biden’s approval rating among very progressive voters is 95-96%, overwhelming Trump’s 2-5%, and actually higher than the 92% vs. 6% in 2020.
◇ “The reason for President Biden’s decline is not party division, but the moderates… an average of 15% of moderates withdraw support”
The biggest drop in President Biden’s approval rating is among moderates. Biden’s lead among moderates ranges from a minimum of 5 percentage points (Fox) to a maximum of 18 percentage points (Market Law School). Considering his lead of 28 (Pew Research Center report) to 30 percentage points (exit polls) in the 2020 election, it can be interpreted that an average of 15 percentage points have withdrawn their support for President Biden.
CNN analyzed that while economic issues could be mentioned as the cause of these results, voters preferred President Trump over candidate Biden on economic issues even until the end of the 2020 election campaign. The most changed indicator compared to the 2020 survey, President Biden’s age (80), could be the most suitable factor.
◇ “The biggest cause of Biden’s approval rating stagnation is his age of 80… 71% of voters in the six battleground states that Biden won in the 2020 election say Biden is too old”
In fact, according to a New York Times (NYT) · Siena College poll released on the 5th, 71% of voters in the six swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan, where President Biden won by a narrow margin in the 2020 election, answered that he is too old to be an effective president. This is a significantly higher figure than the 36% of voters who gave the same answer in 2020.
Former President Trump, who is 77, was only considered too old by 39%. In this poll, former President Trump received higher support in five states excluding Wisconsin and led President Biden, who stayed at 44%, with a total approval rating of 48%.
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