Joint Chiefs of Staff “Necessary Measures if North Korea Shoots Reconnaissance Satellite”… Suggestion of suspension of effectiveness of 9-19 Agreement (synthesis).

Debris from a North Korean space launch vehicle. June 16, 2023/News1 © News1 Joint Photojournalism Foundation

South Korean military authorities urged North Korea on the 20th to immediately halt its so-called ‘military reconnaissance satellite’ launch, stating that they would “take necessary measures” if the launch proceeds. This appears to contemplate the suspension of the ‘9·19 South-North Military Agreement’ adopted in 2018.

Kang Ho-phil, Operations Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Major General), stated in a ‘Warning Message against North Korea’s Military Reconnaissance Satellite Launch’ announced on the 20th, “The North Korean regime must face the reality that the international community uniformly condemns North Korea’s illegal actions and sternly warns it to immediately stop the military reconnaissance satellite launch it is currently preparing.”

Chief Kang said, “If North Korea proceeds with the reconnaissance satellite launch despite our warning, our military will take necessary measures to ensure the lives and safety of our citizens.”

North Korea launched the ‘Cholima-1 type’ rocket, claiming to have loaded the reconnaissance satellite ‘Manrikyong-1’ from the West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Dongchang-ri, Pyonganbuk-do, in May and August, but both attempts to put the satellite into orbit failed.

North Korea subsequently announced a ‘re-launch in October,’ but has yet to carry it out. However, South Korean military authorities are monitoring related trends, as North Korea could reattempt the reconnaissance satellite launch as early as this week, with technical support from Russia.

As the Joint Chiefs of Staff publicly issued a warning message to North Korea today, there are speculations that signs of an imminent launch of North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite have been detected by South Korean and U.S. authorities.

Chief Kang pointed out that “the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite is a clear violation of the UN Security Council resolution that bans all missile launches using ballistic missile technology by North Korea” and is a “provocative act threatening our national security.”

In particular, he said, “Despite repeated warnings and condemnations from the international community, North Korea has repeatedly violated Security Council resolutions. Last year, it launched more than 70 ballistic missiles in more than 30 instances, the highest frequency ever, and so far this year, it has launched 30 ballistic missiles.”

Chief Kang did not specifically mention what measures our military would take if North Korea pushes ahead with the reconnaissance satellite launch this time. However, Chief Kang pointed out that North Korea’s ‘9·19 Agreement’ violation is ongoing, suggesting that a ‘suspension of effectiveness’ decision could be made on the 9·19 Agreement if North Korea attempts to launch a satellite again.

Chief Kang said, “North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite launch is part of a series of actions to implement nuclear and missile threats, including improvements in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) performance. North Korea’s reconnaissance satellites are intended to enhance surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities against us.”

In addition, Chief Kang said, “Due to the 9·19 Agreement, our military’s restrictions on information surveillance activities in the contact area result in a significant impairment of our readiness posture, leading to a failure to protect the lives and safety of our citizens.”

National Security Council (NSC) Standing Committee. (Provided by the Presidential Office) November 20, 2023/News1 © News1 Reporter Oh Dae-il

The ‘9·19 Military Field South-North Agreement’ is an appended agreement to the ‘Pyongyang Joint Declaration’ adopted at the summit held in Pyongyang in September 2018 between then-President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the North Korean Workers’ Party.

This agreement includes the establishment of △no-fly zones, △prohibition zones for artillery firing and outdoor maneuvers at the regiment level or above, and △buffer zones in the border areas between South and North Korea based on the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) to prevent accidental military clashes between the two Koreas.

Chief Kang said, “(However,) North Korea has nullified the 9·19 Agreement,” pointing out North Korea’s coastal artillery firing in the West Sea Changrin Island in November 2019, the GP shooting provocation in the central front in May 2020, missile launches towards the Southern waters of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea in November last year, and the infiltration of small unmanned aircraft in the metropolitan area in December as “explicit” violations of the 9·19 Agreement.

Chief Kang particularly stated, “North Korea has violated the ‘closure of coastal artillery gates’ stipulated in the 9·19 Agreement from 100 to 1,000 times a year, resulting in about 3,400 accumulated violations as of November 2023. The 9·19 Agreement stipulates that it builds trust and eases military tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but North Korea’s behavior so far clearly shows no intention to comply with the agreement,” repeatedly criticizing it.

Chief Kang continued, “Despite North Korea’s repeated violations of the (9·19) Agreement, our military has patiently complied with the agreement so far, but this has caused significant problems in our military’s readiness posture,” enumerating the military restrictions and vulnerabilities due to compliance with the 9·19 Agreement.

According to Chief Kang, so far, △our troops stationed in the Northwestern Islands had to move up to about 310 miles inland for major firearms training due to the establishment of the West Sea buffer zone under the 9·19 Agreement, and △the establishment of the no-fly zone has been a restriction on the operation of our military’s surveillance and reconnaissance assets needed to identify signs of tactical provocations such as North Korea’s long-range artillery firing.

Chief Kang pointed out that since the “1991 South-North Basic Agreement”, South and North Korea have signed numerous agreements, but “North Korea has continuously violated the purpose and spirit of these agreements,” citing the North’s demolition of the South-North Joint Liaison Office in June 2020 as an example.

Furthermore, Chief Kang said, “The ‘Pyongyang Joint Declaration’ in 2018 agreed to permanently dismantle the missile engine test site and launch pad in Dongchang-ri, but these test sites and launch pads are currently being improved and operated. This is also a violation of the existing agreement.”

In the meantime, our government is currently discussing a plan to resume reconnaissance activities within the no-fly zone set by the 9·19 Agreement at the National Security Council (NSC) level if North Korea tries to launch a reconnaissance satellite again. It is known that the government’s internal procedure necessary for the suspension of the 9·19 Agreement is completed by notifying North Korea of the related content after the Cabinet’s decision.

In relation to this, the National Security Office also announced that it had checked the readiness posture regarding North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite launch at the NSC Standing Committee held under the chairmanship of Cho Tae-yong, the Security Office Chief, on the same day.

The NSC standing committee members who attended the meeting agreed to prepare for the possibility of provocations such as North Korea’s launch of a reconnaissance satellite or a medium- to long-range ballistic missile, and to take necessary measures through cooperation with the U.S.-South Korean alliance, U.S.-Japan-South Korea cooperation, and international cooperation.

hgo@news1.kr