“US-China Strategic Competition Increases Burden on Allies…Fatal Consequences if Not Managed”.

Former National Security Office Chief Kim Sung-han. [Yonhap]

[Herald Economy=Choi Eun-ji Reporter] The strategic competition between the US and China is increasing the burden on US allies, and failing to manage this could lead to dire consequences, according to predictions.

Additionally, the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue has become more difficult due to changes in China’s stance, and it has been pointed out that this will also negatively impact the issue of Korean unification.

Kim Sung-han, a professor at Korea University who served as the head of the National Security Office, mentioned three challenges for the 70th anniversary of the US-Korea alliance during his keynote speech at the ‘Seoul Diplomatic Forum 2023’ held at the National Diplomatic Academy on the 17th.

Professor Kim pointed out three turning points in the footsteps of the US-Korea alliance, which has reached its “golden age”: the end of the Cold War, 9/11 terrorism, and US-China strategic competition.

Professor Kim stated, “During the Cold War, preventing the Soviet Union’s strategic gains aligned with US interests, so US allies were confident that the US would help if an external force threatened them.” He added, “The US and its allies were ready to shed blood together in the event of a war.”

The US alliance through ‘blood ties’ faced a new environment with the end of the Cold War. Professor Kim said, “As the diplomatic dynamics between North Korea and the US changed, it affected US-Korea relations and South-North relations,” and “Due to these changes, it became difficult to clearly define the basis of the US-Korea alliance.”

The 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 shook the foundation of the world strategy pursued by the US. In the position of protecting its allies, the US needed the help of its allies to win the ‘war on terror.’

Professor Kim stated, “As the war on terror gradually took on the form of a comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy, the US-Korea alliance also evolved into a comprehensive alliance,” and “The US-Korea alliance had no choice but to aim for a comprehensive strategic alliance, and it moved in the direction of enhancing Korea’s diplomatic and economic role at the regional and global levels.”

Subsequently, the ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy of the Barack Obama administration in 2011 marked another turning point for the US-Korea alliance in the era of US-China strategic competition. In 2018, the Trump administration declared a trade war, and the Biden administration has also continued this policy against China, competing to block the transfer of advanced technology.

Professor Kim stated, “The US-China strategic competition will last until at least 2050,” and “It will take at least one generation to clearly determine the winner from the core of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

He continued, “The issue of expanding the US-Korea military security alliance to economic and technological cooperation has been raised,” and explained, “The Yoon Seok-youl government has upgraded the comprehensive strategic alliance to a ‘global comprehensive strategic alliance.’”

US President Joe Biden (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping are walking side by side after a meeting near Woodside, near San Francisco, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting is held on the 15th (local time). The two leaders held their second face-to-face meeting since taking office. [Yonhap]

With the US-China strategic competition, the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue has become more difficult as China’s stance changes. China, which used to support UN Security Council resolutions sanctioning North Korea, is now in a situation where it can’t even condemn the Security Council resolution due to Russia’s veto.

Professor Kim said, “In this situation, the US and Korea need to find a way to separate the North Korean nuclear issue from the US-China strategic competition by persuading China,” and “If not, the US and Korea will have to devise a sophisticated plan to pressure North Korea without depending on China, along with other countries with the same intentions.”

For example, efforts to block illegal cyber activities to prevent North Korea from hacking cryptocurrencies used for nuclear missile development, and continued pressure on North Korea’s human rights issues.

Professor Kim said, “Denuclearization and human rights are two sides of the same coin,” and “Denuclearization and human rights will become a task to be pursued together with the international community, including the US, Korea, and Japan.”

The second is the US’s issue of managing its allies. Professor Kim said, “The reason why the US’s allies maintain an alliance with the US, despite having close and extensive economic cooperation with China, is because the US is playing a leadership role in maintaining the liberal international order,” and warned, “However, if the US breaks the principles of the liberal international order by shouting ‘America First’ only, the problem will become very serious.”

He continued, “No country, including China, has yet proposed a new order to replace the liberal international order, but if a new isolationist becomes the next US president, US leadership could be seriously weakened,” and said.

He added, “In this case, the US’s allies will be greatly shaken, and Korea is no exception,” and “The US should worry about the ‘alliance transfer’ from the US to China.” The one year left until the US presidential election is a crucial strategic period for the US-Korea alliance.

Furthermore, the intensification of the US-China strategic competition is also a challenge as it is not favorable for Korean unification. Professor Kim said, “Korea has more losses than gains as the US and China become obsessed with competition on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region.”

He predicted, “If Korea and the US try to conduct joint operations on the Korean Peninsula in an emergency, China has the possibility of dispatching its troops to North Korea,” and “Whether China actually takes such measures will depend on its relationship with the US.”

He expressed concern, saying, “Considering the reduced possibility of US-China cooperation around the Korean Peninsula, the optimal environment for Korean unification is a situation where the US maintains its dominant position while maintaining a cooperative relationship with China in competition,” and “The worst scenario is a situation where ‘power transfer’ to China occurs or becomes influential in the US.”

President Yoon Seok-yeol, who is visiting the US to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, is taking a commemorative photo with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a US-Korea-Japan summit held at the Moscone Center in San Francisco on the 16th (local time). [Yonhap]

Professor Kim emphasized that the US, Korea, and Japan should play a central role in promoting peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

He stressed that the security cooperation between the three countries of the US, Korea, and Japan should be linked with the Quad, a regional dialogue body consisting of the US, Japan, India, and Australia, AUKUS (Australia, UK, US security partnership), and Five Eyes (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand intelligence alliance).

Professor Kim said, “There is no reason to refuse cooperation between Korea, China, and Japan if possible,” and “Because it is possible to lead the US-China strategic competition to stability, not confrontation, through a dialogue body that includes the US and China.”

He added, “Ultimately, the construction of an organic network of bilateral cooperation including US-Korea, Korea-Japan, US-Japan, and US-China is needed,” and “An organic network should be built among all dialogue bodies, including small multilateral meetings such as US-Korea-Japan, Korea-Japan-China, Quad, and APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), EAS (East Asia Summit), and other multilateral cooperation.”