Shin Won-sik “North to launch military reconnaissance satellite as early as this week, 30 days at the latest”.

(Seoul=Yonhap News) Reporter Park Soo-yoon = Minister of Defense Shin Won-sik predicted that North Korea might launch a reconnaissance satellite as early as this week, after the ‘missile industry day’, which was marked as the ‘D-day’ of the third launch of the military reconnaissance satellite, passed one day on the 19th.

Minister Shin appeared on KBS1TV’s ‘Sunday Diagnosis’ this morning and said, “I think North Korea might be able to launch it before South Korea launches its first military reconnaissance satellite from Vandenberg Air Force Base in the U.S. on November 30 at the latest.”

Minister Shin explained, “South Korea and the U.S. are watching (North Korea’s movements) together. The preparations to launch within a week are steadily progressing.”

He then assessed, “To launch a reconnaissance satellite, you need to have a proper engine and test the engine. We think they have almost solved the engine problem with the help of Russia.”

He then revealed the reason why he judged the launch timing of North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite as ‘within a week’, saying, “It takes a week to move from the engine test site to Dongchang-ri, assemble the fixed launch pad, and inject liquid fuel.”

Regarding the reason for monitoring North Korea’s launch of reconnaissance satellites, Minister Shin said, “If a bomb is put on the upper part of the reconnaissance satellite, it becomes an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), which violates the UN Security Council and shows the advancement of rocket technology in weaponization.”

He also said, “Our military advantage over North Korea is surveillance capability, but the reconnaissance satellite could drastically improve North Korea’s surveillance capability and offset our advantage, so the U.S. is also keeping a close eye on it.”

Minister Shin also expressed concern about North Korea’s announcement that it had successfully tested a solid fuel engine for a new medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on the 11th and 14th.

He analyzed, “There seems to have been considerable progress in North Korean technology,” but also said, “It doesn’t seem to have completely succeeded.”

Regarding North Korea’s so-called ‘missile industry day’ (November 18), Minister Shin said, “I predicted that they would launch a solid fuel IRBM yesterday, but since they didn’t, I think they might have a chance to test it once.”

However, he warned that the success of the solid fuel test could be a poison to North Korea.

Minister Shin said, “North Korea has about 1,000 missiles, but all of them deployed for combat are based on liquid fuel,” and predicted, “It will cost a tremendous amount of money to change all of them to solid fuel.”

He emphasized, “Missiles require advanced semiconductors and advanced composite materials like carbon fiber, which North Korea can hardly make and has to smuggle in all. If we thoroughly control the export of strategic materials, we can significantly block North Korea from mass-producing and deploying solid fuel missiles, even if the test is successful.”

He also said, “Even if they replace them with solid fuel, it will cost a tremendous amount of money, which could be a catalyst to speed up their collapse.”

He reaffirmed his usual position that the 9·19 South-North military agreement, which is being discussed for suspension of effect within the government, should be abolished.

Minister Shin said, “North Korea is attacking and we are only defending. North Korea is a carnivore and we are herbivores,” and argued, “If we remove the fence and CCTV between the robber and the good citizen, who will benefit, the robber or the citizen? It’s an agreement that only benefits North Korea.”

He said, “The opposition party says that if we suspend the effect of the 9·19 military agreement, we will give North Korea a reason to provoke, but North Korea fired the Daepodong 1 missile during President Kim Dae-jung’s term, and there were the first and second Yeonpyeong Sea battles, and during President Roh Moo-hyun’s term, they conducted the first nuclear test,” and said, “North Korea provokes when it thinks it has a chance of winning against South Korea.”

He also criticized, “North Korea has been deceiving us for the past 70 years, and if we are deceived again, the problem is more with the deceived than the deceiver. We will become a laughingstock of the world.”

Regarding the trend of arms trade between North Korea and Russia, he said, “It has increased sharply since Kim Jong Un visited Russia this year,” and said, “We understand that about 3,000 containers have gone to Russia so far,” and “They have sent anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles.”

He also said, “North Korea also took advantage of the special situation of the Ukraine war and exported a lot of weapons, so a significant amount of food and fuel from Russia would have been imported this winter,” and said, “We are keeping a close eye on the inflow of advanced military technology that can affect us with the U.S., and we are also devising countermeasures.”

Minister Shin said about the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA)’s suggestion to cut the first production volume of the first Korean supersonic fighter KF-21 in half, “We are persuading the Ministry of Strategy and Finance and the National Assembly to be able to do it as planned, and there is progress.”

Regarding the controversy over external pressure in relation to the death of Marine Corps Private First Class Chae, he refrained from commenting, saying, “We should wait because it has entered the judicial system process.”

He added, “The sad death of Private First Class Chae is under investigation by the police, the problem of the former investigation team leader’s false name in the Marine Corps has been indicted and entered the trial process by the military prosecutor’s office, and the external pressure issue is under investigation by the Special Investigation Department for High-ranking Officials. What politicians are saying is external pressure, and it’s a way to eliminate external pressure to trust the legal process and wait.”

clap@yna.co.kr