As President Joe Biden, the oldest president in U.S. history, approaches his 81st birthday, recent major polls show he is trailing behind the “static” former President Donald Trump. This is an unusual result considering the incumbent president’s advantage in next year’s election. There is growing concern about President Biden’s age and health, especially in swing states. Some argue that Biden’s foreign and economic policies, which have been under scrutiny due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, are to blame.
According to a poll released by NBC on the 19th (local time), President Biden only garnered 44% support in a hypothetical election against former President Trump. Although within the margin of error (±3.1%), this is the first time in the same poll that former President Trump (46%) has surpassed President Biden. In a previous survey in September, they both received 46% support, and in June, President Biden (49% to 45%) was ahead.
NBC stated, “Former President Trump has surpassed President Biden for the first time,” citing the Biden administration’s foreign policy, including the recent division within the Democratic Party due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, as the background. In this survey conducted from the 10th to the 14th of this month with 1,000 U.S. voters, only 33% of respondents showed support for President Biden’s foreign policy. This is 8 percentage points lower than the September survey. President Biden’s overall approval rating also dropped to 40%, tying his all-time low.
At this point, about a year before the election, President Biden is trailing former President Trump in all other U.S. polls. CNN reported the day before that in recent polls released by CBS News·YouGov, CNN·SSRS, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, and Quinnipiac University, Trump’s approval rating led Biden’s by 2 to 4 percentage points.
In most polls released about a year before the U.S. presidential election over the past 80 years, the incumbent president has led other competitors by an average of more than 10 percentage points. CNN assessed that “Former President Trump currently has a small but clear advantage over President Biden,” noting that almost all incumbent presidents since Franklin Roosevelt in 1943 have been included in this trend. This trend is also confirmed in swing states such as Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, which can determine the outcome of the election.
CNN analyzed that the reason President Biden is trailing in a hypothetical match-up with former President Trump is not only due to the fallout from the division within the Democratic Party related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, but also due to economic issues and age. President Biden is about to turn 81 the next day.
In a poll conducted by Yahoo·YouGov from the 9th to the 13th of this month, 56% of respondents said that President Biden’s age would be a ‘big problem’ in performing his presidential duties. Only 13% said it wouldn’t be a problem. In a poll released earlier this month by The New York Times and Siena College, more than seven out of ten voters in six states, including Georgia and Arizona, said President Biden was too old to be an effective president. In contrast, only 39% of voters saw the age of former President Trump, who is 77, as a problem.
Bloomberg reported, “As President Biden celebrates his 81st birthday on the 20th, the question of how much his age will be a problem in a match-up with former President Trump will be highlighted even more. In recent major swing state polls, President Biden is trailing former President Trump, and voters are greatly concerned about President Biden’s health and mental acuity.”
Meanwhile, former President Trump is showing overwhelming support in the Republican presidential primary, with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley on the rise. In a poll released today by NBC, former President Trump’s approval rating was 58%. Following him were Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 18% and former Ambassador Haley with 13%. Haley’s approval rating has nearly doubled from the 7% she received in the September survey. DeSantis, once considered a counterweight to Trump, appeared on CNN today and directly attacked both President Biden and former President Trump, stating, “The presidency is not a job for someone over 80 years old.”
New York=Seul Ki Cho, Special Correspondent seul@asiae.co.kr
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